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A Bayesian latent class reinforcement learning framework to capture adaptive, feedback-driven travel behaviour

Sfeir, Georges, Hess, Stephane, Hancock, Thomas O., Rodrigues, Filipe, Rad, Jamal Amani, Bliemer, Michiel, Beck, Matthew, Khan, Fayyaz

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many travel decisions involve a degree of experience formation, where individuals learn their preferences over time. At the same time, there is extensive scope for heterogeneity across individual travellers, both in their underlying preferences and in how these evolve. The present paper puts forward a Latent Class Reinforcement Learning (LCRL) model that allows analysts to capture both of these phenomena. We apply the model to a driving simulator dataset and estimate the parameters through Variational Bayes. We identify three distinct classes of individuals that differ markedly in how they adapt their preferences: the first displays context-dependent preferences with context-specific exploitative tendencies; the second follows a persistent exploitative strategy regardless of context; and the third engages in an exploratory strategy combined with context-specific preferences.


MIGHTY: Hermite Spline-based Efficient Trajectory Planning

Kondo, Kota, Wu, Yuwei, Kumar, Vijay, How, Jonathan P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Hard-constraint trajectory planners often rely on commercial solvers and demand substantial computational resources. Existing soft-constraint methods achieve faster computation, but either (1) decouple spatial and temporal optimization or (2) restrict the search space. T o overcome these limitations, we introduce MIGHTY, a Hermite spline-based planner that performs spatiotemporal optimization while fully leveraging the continuous search space of a spline. In simulation, MIGHTY achieves a 9.3% reduction in computation time and a 13.1% reduction in travel time over state-of-the-art baselines, with a 100% success rate. In hardware, MIGHTY completes multiple high-speed flights up to 6.7 m/s in a cluttered static environment and long-duration flights with dynamically added obstacles. Trajectory planning for autonomous navigation has been extensively studied, with a wide variety of parameterizations and formulations [3], [6], [7], [9], [12], [14]-[17], [19]-[23].


OPTIC-ER: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Real-Time Emergency Response and Equitable Resource Allocation in Underserved African Communities

Tonwe, Mary

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Public service systems in many African regions suffer from delayed emergency response and spatial inequity, causing avoidable suffering. This paper introduces OPTIC-ER, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for real-time, adaptive, and equitable emergency response. OPTIC-ER uses an attention-guided actor-critic architecture to manage the complexity of dispatch environments. Its key innovations are a Context-Rich State Vector, encoding action sub-optimality, and a Precision Reward Function, which penalizes inefficiency. Training occurs in a high-fidelity simulation using real data from Rivers State, Nigeria, accelerated by a precomputed Travel Time Atlas. The system is built on the TALS framework (Thin computing, Adaptability, Low-cost, Scalability) for deployment in low-resource settings. In evaluations on 500 unseen incidents, OPTIC-ER achieved a 100.00% optimal action selection rate, confirming its robustness and generalization. Beyond dispatch, the system generates Infrastructure Deficiency Maps and Equity Monitoring Dashboards to guide proactive governance and data-informed development. This work presents a validated blueprint for AI-augmented public services, showing how context-aware RL can bridge the gap between algorithmic decision-making and measurable human impact.


Market share maximizing strategies of CAV fleet operators may cause chaos in our cities

Jamróz, Grzegorz, Kucharski, Rafał, Watling, David

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the dynamics and equilibria of a new kind of routing games, where players - drivers of future autonomous vehicles - may switch between individual (HDV) and collective (CAV) routing. In individual routing, just like today, drivers select routes minimizing expected travel costs, whereas in collective routing an operator centrally assigns vehicles to routes. The utility is then the average experienced travel time discounted with individually perceived attractiveness of automated driving. The market share maximising strategy amounts to offering utility greater than for individual routing to as many drivers as possible. Our theoretical contribution consists in developing a rigorous mathematical framework of individualized collective routing and studying algorithms which fleets of CAVs may use for their market-share optimization. We also define bi-level CAV - HDV equilibria and derive conditions which link the potential marketing behaviour of CAVs to the behavioural profile of the human population. Practically, we find that the fleet operator may often be able to equilibrate at full market share by simply mimicking the choices HDVs would make. In more realistic heterogenous human population settings, however, we discover that the market-share maximizing fleet controller should use highly variable mixed strategies as a means to attract or retain customers. The reason is that in mixed routing the powerful group player can control which vehicles are routed via congested and uncongested alternatives. The congestion pattern generated by CAVs is, however, not known to HDVs before departure and so HDVs cannot select faster routes and face huge uncertainty whichever alternative they choose. Consequently, mixed market-share maximising fleet strategies resulting in unpredictable day-to-day driving conditions may, alarmingly, become pervasive in our future cities.


End-to-end Deep Reinforcement Learning for Stochastic Multi-objective Optimization in C-VRPTW

Abouelrous, Abdo, Bliek, Laurens, Wu, Yaoxin, Zhang, Yingqian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we consider learning-based applications in routing to solve a Vehicle Routing variant characterized by stochasticity and multiple objectives. Such problems are representative of practical settings where decision-makers have to deal with uncertainty in the operational environment as well as multiple conflicting objectives due to different stakeholders. We specifically consider travel time uncertainty. We also consider two objectives, total travel time and route makespan, that jointly target operational efficiency and labor regulations on shift length, although different objectives could be incorporated. Learning-based methods offer earnest computational advantages as they can repeatedly solve problems with limited interference from the decision-maker. We specifically focus on end-to-end deep learning models that leverage the attention mechanism and multiple solution trajectories. These models have seen several successful applications in routing problems. However, since travel times are not a direct input to these models due to the large dimensions of the travel time matrix, accounting for uncertainty is a challenge, especially in the presence of multiple objectives. In turn, we propose a model that simultaneously addresses stochasticity and multi-objectivity and provide a refined training mechanism for this model through scenario clustering to reduce training time. Our results show that our model is capable of constructing a Pareto Front of good quality within acceptable run times compared to three baselines.


Multi-Agent Coordination in Autonomous Vehicle Routing: A Simulation-Based Study of Communication, Memory, and Routing Loops

Saifullah, KM Khalid, Palmer, Daniel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent coordination is critical for next-generation autonomous vehicle (AV) systems, yet naive implementations of communication-based rerouting can lead to catastrophic performance degradation. This study investigates a fundamental problem in decentralized multi-agent navigation: routing loops, where vehicles without persistent obstacle memory become trapped in cycles of inefficient path recalculation. Through systematic simulation experiments involving 72 unique configurations across varying vehicle densities (15, 35, 55 vehicles) and obstacle frequencies (6, 20 obstacles), we demonstrate that memory-less reactive rerouting increases average travel time by up to 682% compared to baseline conditions. To address this, we introduce Object Memory Management (OMM), a lightweight mechanism enabling agents to retain and share knowledge of previously encountered obstacles. OMM operates by maintaining a distributed blacklist of blocked nodes, which each agent consults during Dijkstra-based path recalculation, effectively preventing redundant routing attempts. Our results show that OMM-enabled coordination reduces average travel time by 75.7% and wait time by 88% compared to memory-less systems, while requiring only 1.67 route recalculations per vehicle versus 9.83 in memory-less scenarios. This work provides empirical evidence that persistent, shared memory is not merely beneficial but essential for robust multi-agent coordination in dynamic environments. The findings have implications beyond autonomous vehicles, informing the design of decentralized systems in robotics, network routing, and distributed AI. We provide a comprehensive experimental analysis, including detailed scenario breakdowns, scalability assessments, and visual documentation of the routing loop phenomenon, demonstrating OMM's critical role in preventing detrimental feedback cycles in cooperative multi-agent systems.


Time-aware Motion Planning in Dynamic Environments with Conformal Prediction

Liang, Kaier, Luo, Licheng, Wang, Yixuan, Cai, Mingyu, Vasile, Cristian Ioan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Safe navigation in dynamic environments remains challenging due to uncertain obstacle behaviors and the lack of formal prediction guarantees. We propose two motion planning frameworks that leverage conformal prediction (CP): a global planner that integrates Safe Interval Path Planning (SIPP) for uncertainty-aware trajectory generation, and a local planner that performs online reactive planning. The global planner offers distribution-free safety guarantees for long-horizon navigation, while the local planner mitigates inaccuracies in obstacle trajectory predictions through adaptive CP, enabling robust and responsive motion in dynamic environments. To further enhance trajectory feasibility, we introduce an adaptive quantile mechanism in the CP-based uncertainty quantification. Instead of using a fixed confidence level, the quantile is automatically tuned to the optimal value that preserves trajectory feasibility, allowing the planner to adaptively tighten safety margins in regions with higher uncertainty. We validate the proposed framework through numerical experiments conducted in dynamic and cluttered environments.




Quantifying Distribution Shift in Traffic Signal Control with Histogram-Based GEH Distance

Taschin, Federico, Tonguz, Ozan K.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic signal control algorithms are vulnerable to distribution shift, where performance degrades under traffic conditions that differ from those seen during design or training. This paper introduces a principled approach to quantify distribution shift by representing traffic scenarios as demand histograms and comparing them with a GEH-based distance function. The method is policy-independent, interpretable, and leverages a widely used traffic engineering statistic. We validate the approach on 20 simulated scenarios using both a NEMA actuated controller and a reinforcement learning controller (FRAP++). Results show that larger scenario distances consistently correspond to increased travel time and reduced throughput, with particularly strong explanatory power for learning-based control. Overall, this method can predict performance degradation under distribution shift better than previously published techniques. These findings highlight the utility of the proposed framework for benchmarking, training regime design, and monitoring in adaptive traffic signal control.